The Perfect Storm

Violence Against Women and the Limits of Reform in a System Under Pressure

Apr 10, 2026

Photo credit - me

I have the privilege of being a Domestic Homicide Review chair and author, and the CEO of an independent specialist Violence Against Women and Girls charity. After more than three decades in this work, I am used to witnessing pressure within the VAWG sector, but what I am witnessing now feels different.

This piece is my attempt to make sense of a convergence of changes - policy, funding, governance, and global instability – which, taken together, risk creating a perfect storm for victims and survivors of men’s violence.

The Perfect Storm

It is undeniable that sustained underinvestment in statutory and third sector services, combined with impending funding cuts, will have severe consequences for women subjected to men’s violence. At the same time, increasing numbers of perpetrators are being released from custody or receiving non‑custodial sentences.

Together, these pressures - funding reductions, sentencing reform, and sweeping changes to governance - are reshaping the landscape at speed. The needs and experiences of current and future victims of men’s violence must be understood, prioritised, and addressed within this context.

Sentencing Reform and early release

The pattern of non-custodial interventions is set to continue in earnest over the coming years. The new sentencing reforms outlined by the Government mean there will be a presumption of suspended sentences for offenders with a custodial sentence of 12 months or less[1]. In addition, the prison overcrowding crisis will have an impact on victims of men’s violence – in July 2024 the Lord Chancellor announced[2] a reduction of some standard determinate sentences of 50% to 40%. Whilst the Government have provided some protection for victims and survivors, the reality is that many offenders will, and are being released early under the scheme:

Domestic abuse perpetrators often receive sentences for offences such as common assault and battery. In the year ending March 2023, 6.3% of domestic abuse related violence against the person offences were charged or summonsed⁴. However, violence against the person offences, such as common assault and battery, where the perpetrator is sentenced to four years or less, will not be exempt from the measures[3].

Although the Government have aimed to make reassurances in regard to these measures by ensuring probation manage offenders on suspended sentences or after release, the potential impact is clearly identifiable. The Domestic Abuse Commissioner, Nicole Jacobs, highlighted[4] the scheme - combined with probation pressures - poses a threat, and she demands victim safety is prioritised or given equal parity with the prison capacity issues.

The 2025 Violence Against Women and Girls strategy[5] set out the Government’s commitment to a relentless pursuit of offenders, which attempts to mitigate against some of the concerns noted above. Positively the strategy commits to expanding the use of Multi-Agency Tasking and Coordination (MATAC) approach, specifically stating the need for joined-up perpetrator management:

A consistent national approach will ensure the most dangerous VAWG perpetrators are identified, targeted, and disrupted with the same intensity as terrorists and serious organised criminals. We are also exploring options to introduce a statutory duty to collaborate, ensuring agencies work together seamlessly to manage risk and prevent harm.

The Government has also committed to national roll out of the Drive Partnership[6], committing £53 million of investment in 2025. The Drive Partnership focuses on perpetrators deemed as high-risk and high harm, the interventions consist of support and disruption in multi-agency settings, and the initial outcomes are promising.

Funding Collapse and Statutory Pressure

Whilst I do not seek to undermine the Government’s ambition to halve violence against women and girls within a decade, or its stated commitment to targeting offenders, it is essential to confront the reality that these ambitions currently run alongside a backdrop of funding cuts to specialist victims’ services and significant pressures on statutory institutions.

In early 2024 the chair of the National Police Chief Council (NPCC) stated^[7] that 6,000 officers are having to work away from frontline crime in order fill gaps faced by a funding crisis, and forces are facing a £3.2 billion cash shortfall in the future.

Statutory sector leaders across the board are raising the alarm on the looming threat of future financial pressures. In late 2023 almost one in five council leaders and chief executives surveyed in England by the Local Government Association stated:

they think it is very or fairly likely that their chief finance officer will need to issue a Section 114 notice this year or next due to a lack of funding to keep key services running.^[8]

A section 114 notice is a report from the council’s finance officer stating they believe that the authority is about to incur expenditure that is unlawful according to the Local Government Finance Act 1988^[9]. In effect this means the local authority declares bankruptcy, and the Domestic Abuse Commissioner has stated most domestic abuse services are non-statutory which means councils have no obligation to fund them^[10].

Both the Women’s Budget Group and Woman’s Aid Federation England have reported^[11] that violence against women services were bracing for the worst. The independent specialist violence against women and girls’ sector has repeatedly warned[12] of severe and long‑standing underfunding, with more than a decade of declining government support. If this trajectory continues[13], victims’ services will be pushed beyond capacity at precisely the moment they are most essential.

Governance reform, policing reorganisation, and geopolitical pressures

By 2028, most local authorities will have undergone significant changes in their governance and organisational structure. The Local Government Reorganisation Programme, alongside the planned abolition of Police and Crime Commissioners will reshape regional accountability arrangements – this either introduces regional Mayor’s and/or expanding responsibilities for local authorities which will further transform the local governance landscape.

Simultaneously, the government released a White Paper[14] in January 2026, signalling the most radical changes to policing since 1960. The new National Police Service will reorganise existing forces across England and Wales into ‘super‑forces’, merging the 43 forces into as few as 12. Whilst this has been welcomed by the NPCC[15], others warn[16] of a loss of accountability, erosion of local governance structures, and funding constraints[17].

At the same time, international conflicts have continued to place pressure on communities and public systems. The war in Ukraine has contributed to rising living costs for families across the UK over the past four years. In addition, a rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis in the Middle East - involving Israel, and the United States - is destabilising the wider region and creating further currently unquantifiable inflationary pressures across global financial markets.

What this means for victims and survivors

Overall, these political reforms, economic, and global pressures have significant consequences for victims and survivors.

Local authorities, policing structures, health and social care, and criminal justice agencies can expect increased demand at a time of shifting governance responsibilities nationally and locally. Rising living costs strain household resilience, often escalating need for early help, safeguarding, housing support, and community safety interventions. Simultaneously, structural reorganisation requires services to adapt to new oversight arrangements, funding pathways, and regional leadership models.

As a result, statutory services, and third sector providers, will likely face continued pressure on capacity, resources, and workforce resilience - making strategic planning and cross-agency collaboration even more critical, but much less achievable without the required resources…

This moment feels qualitatively different from the pressures we have faced before in the VAWG sector. There is a mounting, accelerating crescendo of change that is reshaping the landscape at pace. While the government’s VAWG Strategy sets out laudable ambitions, these will not deliver immediate benefit. Its real‑world impact may take years to materialise, and by the time improvements are felt, the support landscape for victims and survivors may already have been critically weakened - potentially beyond repair.

This is the context in which current reforms must be judged: not by their intent, but by their timing and their impact on women at risk from men now - women who cannot wait for services to be adequately funded or strategies to take effect.

Dr Shonagh Dillon

[1] https://todaysfamilylawyer.co.uk/victims-to-be-protected-through-sentencing-reforms/#:~:text=What’s%20more%2C%20through%20the%20Sentencing,of%20four%20years%20or%20more.

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/standard-determinate-sentence-40-sds40-september-2024-to-june-2025

[3] https://refuge.org.uk/what-is-domestic-abuse/law-and-policy/the-prison-overcrowding-crisis-and-the-impact-on-domestic-abuse-survivors/#:~:text=These%20measures%20could%20have%20a%20significant%20impact,risk%20assessments%20that%20miss%20out%20essential%20details

[4] https://domesticabusecommissioner.uk/commissioner-responds-to-new-measures-to-temporarily-delay-some-imprisonments/#:~:text=Commissioner%20responds%20to%20new%20measures,about%20their%20perpetrators’%20court%20dates.

[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/freedom-from-violence-and-abuse-a-cross-government-strategy/freedom-from-violence-and-abuse-a-cross-government-strategy-to-build-a-safer-society-for-women-and-girls-accessible#relentless-pursuit-of-perpetrators-2

[6]

https://drivepartnership.org.uk/

[7] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/05/police-still-suffering-damage-uk-government-cuts-funding-crisis

[8] https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/section-114-fear-almost-1-5-council-leaders-and-chief-executives-after-cashless-autumn

[9] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/local-authority-section-114-notices

[10] https://domesticabusecommissioner.uk/lifesaving-domestic-abuse-services-at-risk-from-council-financial-crisis-warns-commissioner/#:~:text=Since%202018%2C%20eight%20councils%20have,no%20obligation%20to%20fund%20them.